How Trump’s policies could impact the retail industry
One of President Trump’s key campaign promises was to put America first. Since taking office, many of his early actions support that goal — from protectionist trade policies to reducing government regulation to using potential tariffs to stem the tide of illegal immigration and drug trafficking. However, economic policy interventions can often create both winners and losers.
Here, we look at the potential impacts, both positive and negative, of Trump’s America-first trade policies on the retail industry.
Context: Tariff and trade policies
The “America First Trade Policy” memorandum, issued January 20, 2025, previewed Trump’s approach to trade policy and set the stage for trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, both in terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — which is up for renegotiation in 2025 — as well as potential tariffs.
On February 1, Trump issued three executive orders proposing 25% tariffs on products imported from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on products imported from China. Those three nations account for more than a third of the products brought into the United States.
Trump also proposed a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, including oil, gas and electricity. As of 2023, 60% of the U.S. oil supply is produced domestically, with 40% imported — and 60% of the imported oil comes from Canada. So, potentially, a Canadian energy tariff could impact almost 25% of the energy that fuels American industry.
The tariffs were described as punitive duties to address the flow of illegal immigration and illicit drugs into the United States from those countries. On February 2 and 3, the proposed tariffs with Canada and Mexico were paused for 30 days after both countries agreed to contribute resources toward stemming the flows of migrants and drugs. As of the publication date of this article, the proposed 10% tariff with China was still on course.
If tariffs are imposed, retailers and distributors could pass the price increases on to the final purchaser, absorb the additional costs or renegotiate deals with suppliers to offset the tariff. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in January 2020 showed that when Trump implemented Chinese tariffs during his first term, most of the costs were passed onto consumers.
The following sections include discussions of potential impacts by industry should those tariffs end up being imposed, as well as potential effects of other Trump administration trade and retail policies.
Consumer products and general retail
1. Deregulation
The Trump administration has indicated a likely softening of Federal Trade Commission (FTC) policies and enforcement practices. Merger and acquisition activity is anticipated to pick up.
Potential impacts: These approaches are likely to be more helpful to larger retailers than smaller ones. Less regulation could provide a lifeline for retail giants like Kohl’s and Big Lots, which have been shuttering stores and filing for bankruptcy protection, while smaller retailers struggle to remain competitive.
On the other hand, less regulation will give all retailers, large and small, more flexibility to market and promote their products, and there may be fewer federal rules on how to handle ever-evolving data protection and privacy policies.
2. Consumer price relief
In his memorandum issued January 20, 2025, “Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families,” Trump directed agencies to eliminate “counterproductive requirements” and “harmful, coercive climate policies” that raise the costs of home appliances, food and fuel.
Potential impacts: The administration hopes to give consumers more choices and lower prices for products — including showerheads, toilets, washing machines, lightbulbs and dishwashers — that were subject to the previous administration’s energy policies and surcharges. However, given rising inflation, potential tariffs and the potential for opportunistic price increases, it’s possible that very little meaningful price relief will be noticed by consumers.
3. Potential tariff impacts
Trump intends to close the “De Minimis Loophole,” a century-old tariff exemption allowing duty-free entry of packages valued under $800. This move directly impacts Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu, which rely on this exemption to ship low-cost goods without import taxes.
Beyond the De Minimis exemption, if tariffs are imposed and if consumers are directly impacted, imported perishable goods and e-commerce products could become more expensive in a matter of weeks. Price increases for durable goods could take longer depending on the status of existing inventory.
Potentially, this could create an advantage for U.S.-based competitors, if those businesses are able to keep pace with demand. However, experts also expect opportunistic price increases, even from suppliers not directly impacted by tariffs, which would lead to an uptick in inflation.
Technology
A tariff on Chinese technology products could have economic consequences on a much larger scale than consumer-grade electronics.
Businesses looking to invest in information infrastructure upgrades, as well as cybersecurity and AI solutions, could face steep cost increases. Many commercial IT products — including servers, networking equipment, semiconductors and AI chips — are either manufactured in China or rely on Chinese components. Even cloud-based solutions that don’t rely as much on physical hardware will be impacted, since AI-powered services depend on high-performance chips. Tariffs would make these IT investments more expensive, and supply chain adjustments might also lead to delays in procurement.
Agribusiness
1. General deregulation
The Trump administration is likely to push for deregulation in the agricultural sector, aiming to reduce federal oversight on farming practices. This could include relaxing environmental restrictions and streamlining approval processes for genetically modified crops and pesticides.
Additionally, we anticipate food safety regulations to be less directed by the FDA and instead taken on by states, allowing state and local authorities to define their more regional needs.
Potential impacts: While overall deregulation might lower costs and increase efficiency for large-scale producers, it could also raise concerns about environmental sustainability and the marginalization of small farmers. State-level authority over food safety could increase the complexity of regulations that food and beverage manufacturers will need to assess when planning new product innovation, market growth and distribution plans in the coming years.
2. Immigration
Stricter immigration policies are likely to result in the deportation of many undocumented farm workers. The Pew Research Center estimates that 17% of workers in the agriculture industry overall are undocumented, and the National Agricultural Workers Survey reported that in 2020, 44% of agricultural workers did not have authorization to work in the U.S.
Potential impacts: This could exacerbate labor shortages in the agricultural sector, particularly given the existing demographic challenges and labor shortage among American workers. This could affect production and supply of agricultural goods to retailers as well as consumer food prices.
3. Potential tariff impacts
If tariffs go into effect, additional import duties on fertilizer and food products from Canada and China will increase costs for agriculture and supply chains. Economists at S&P Global have identified U.S. farming, fishing and auto production as facing the highest risk of disruption from potential tariffs.
If U.S. import tariffs are levied, retaliatory tariffs are also likely, which could impact U.S. agriculture exports to Mexico and Canada, particularly those from pork and beef producers.
Auto and equipment dealerships
1. Ending incentives for Evs
During his first week in office, Trump rescinded Executive Order 14037 of August 5, 2021, “Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks.” This rescission rolled back emissions standards and goals, ended federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and halted funding for EV charging infrastructure.
Potential impacts: All of these rollbacks may slow EV adoption, so retailers specializing in EVs or related technologies might experience decreased demand. The relaxation of vehicle emissions standards may reduce production costs for gasoline-powered vehicles, which could lead to a more diverse vehicle inventory for retailers. Taken together, all of these measures may influence consumer preferences toward traditional vehicles over electric ones.
2. U.S.-based production
One of Trump’s key messages throughout the campaign was the reshoring of American production. During his first week in office, Trump touted Stellantis’ announcement that it would restart an assembly plant in Illinois and build the new Dodge Durango in Detroit.
Potential impacts: If the Stellantis announcement is the first of many and manufacturers continue to bring more production back into the U.S., this could have positive supply chain impacts for dealers of cars, trucks and heavy equipment, from better availability and reduced wait times for vehicles, to lower transportation costs, to potentially lower prices for consumers.
3. Potential tariff impacts
Economists have indicated that the auto and electric equipment sectors in Mexico are among the most exposed to disruption from potential U.S. tariffs. Should the proposed tariff on Mexico be imposed — and particularly in combination with increased U.S.-based manufacturing operations — domestically-produced cars, trucks and equipment could create more favorable supply-chain conditions for dealers and consumers, as long as U.S. manufacturing operations are able to ramp up quickly and keep pace with demand.
How Wipfli can help
Our industry professionals can help you stay up to date on policies impacting retail activity. Contact us, and for continuous updates on administration policies impacting the retail industry, follow our policy updates page.
