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    ARTICLE

    2026 outlook for tribal: Steady gains amid broad uncertainty

    Tribal government and gaming leaders should feel a note of optimism heading into 2026. Over the next 12 months, tribal casinos and gaming enterprises should see steady, if modest growth, along with opportunities to expand into new areas. However, tribal entities will also face broader political and economic uncertainty, challenges from increased gaming competition and questions around grant funding levels. The ripple effects of healthcare budget cuts, which will heavily affect rural hospitals, will also leave a mark. Keep reading to learn more about what’s ahead for tribal governments and gaming enterprises in 2026 and how to navigate the next year. What are the key trends that will shape tribal government and gaming in 2026? In 2026, tribes will likely enjoy solid growth in gaming revenues. Tribal governments will also look to diversify revenue streams in the face of increased competition and explore opportunities in areas like renewable energy. Here’s more insight into these key trends: Steady yet modest gaming revenue growth: In what may be a tough year for the economy as a whole, tribal casinos and gaming enterprises should continue to see single-digit growth similar to the last few years. This should be mostly organic growth driven by a combination of retiring baby boomers and younger customers originally brought into gaming by sports betting or table games. Diversifying revenue sources: Recognizing that competition from both tribal and non-tribal gaming enterprises is only increasing as gaming becomes more widely integrated into American society, tribal organizations are increasingly looking for new revenue streams. For many tribes, this looks like exploring hospitality or alternative entertainment experiences. Continued renewable energy opportunities: Despite some clean energy tax incentives being sunset by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) that passed last summer, tribes can still find opportunities to benefit from renewable energy construction, which can provide jobs, revenue and lowered energy costs for local communities. Tribal governments managing large areas of undeveloped land are often well-positioned to deploy wind or solar energy projects (with certain tax incentives still available for projects that begin construction by mid-2026), while geothermal tax incentives remain fully in place. Focus on Class II gaming: Since tribal entities keep 100% of Class II gaming revenues rather than possibly sharing proceeds with the state (depending on the compact), look for gaming enterprises to continue to focus on growing Class II rather than Class III gaming. For tribes seeing limited customer growth, emphasizing Class II gaming can generate increased revenue from the existing customer pool as Class II continues to evolve. Overall, tribal leaders should review their historical data and financial projections for 2026 to assess their particular strengths and identify which growth areas make the most sense. What are the major challenges that tribal governments and gaming leaders will face in 2026? The same political and economic uncertainty that dominated attention in 2025 will likely persist in 2026. Tribal governments should also be prepared for conversations about cuts to grant funding, changes to grant requirements and increased competition in both gaming and non-gaming arenas. Tribal leaders should watch for: Broad uncertainty: Tribes should consider uncertainty when making moves in 2026. The economy as a whole appears to be on shaky ground, and the political situation in Washington is less stable than in previous eras. This doesn’t mean avoid action, but it does call for awareness of the big picture. Challenges to tribal grants: The Trump administration already paused tribal grant funding temporarily in 2025. Governments should be prepared that this could occur again in 2026, along with increased regulatory scrutiny around how grant funds are accounted for. There has also been discussion of a 24% cut to tribal grants per the original proposed White House budget, although this is far from certain to occur. Ongoing competition: While the growth in online gambling and sports betting has increased the number of Americans interested in gaming, that same trend has also generated major new competition for tribal entities. Non-tribal rivals may continue to push into lending, cannabis and other areas that tribes are already heavily invested in. Healthcare cuts: The nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts included in the OBBB will take a big bite out of rural hospital budgets. Tribal leaders will need to assess how those cuts could impact their communities, especially as populations age, and begin exploring alternative care solutions when necessary. None of these challenges are insurmountable. But tribal leaders may want to call on advisory support to navigate the nuanced obstacles ahead. How should tribal governments and gaming enterprises prepare for 2026? To get ahead in 2026, tribal governments should lean heavily on digital and automation, both within governmental organizations and affiliated gaming subsidiaries. On the gaming side, specifically, tribal leaders should also evaluate their customer experiences and identify areas for improvement. 1. Develop a comprehensive digital strategic plan Almost every tribal government or gaming enterprise already has some digital capacity. But the organizations that succeed in 2026 won’t just have digital systems, but a comprehensive digital strategic plan to use those systems to their full potential. Work with an advisor to create this digital roadmap. Don’t make decisions based on the pressure to keep up with competitors, but after assessing your specific organizational needs. Your plan should focus on problems and solutions. What are you doing manually now that you could do faster and more accurately with digital? Are there aspects of your existing digital capacities you aren’t making the most of? Creating and then executing on a thoughtful plan will help you see a broader impact and more substantial ROI from your digital investments. And more effective digital capacities will also likely prove especially useful should your government face additional regulatory scrutiny around grant funding. For example, tribal governments with cloud-based grant management systems in place can more confidently detail expenses and provide accurate, up-to-date financials during an audit. 2. Embrace automation As automation, often powered by AI , grows ever more capable in certain areas, tribes should look to take advantage. Automation is less about replacing jobs and more about helping your existing team work more effectively and focus less on data collection and more on higher-level analysis. Automation is especially useful in areas like finance and accounting. Tribal governments, like organizations across sectors, are facing a brain drain of accounting talent as older generations retire , and automation can help you make the most of your team members. Automated accounting systems help drive real-time financial reporting. This gives your leadership team a more accurate picture of your current financial situation to make more proactive decisions . Crucially, automated systems will also free your team up from painstaking efforts to manually enter data into spreadsheets. This can improve job satisfaction and make you a more appealing place to work from a recruiting and retention perspective. Training is an important element to consider here. To really benefit from automation, you don’t just need the right systems in place, but a team with the capabilities to use them. 3. Lean into customer experience Finally, from a casino perspective, 2026 is the year to ramp up your customer experience. Because there’s so much competition for gambling dollars, gaming enterprises will need to distinguish themselves from the crowd. Get curious here. Survey your customers, talk to people, use real-time data, explore AI options, and get a clear sense of what people like about your offering and where you could potentially improve. How can you make your customers feel really valued? Areas to consider often involve hospitality — nicer hotel rooms or better dining, for example. Think about what makes sense for your specific market and whether you can leverage AI to make a given improvement more profitable. Read more How real-time financial reporting transforms tribal gaming Sage Intacct helps tribal entities improve grant management How Sage Intacct simplifies tribal gaming procurement

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    ARTICLE

    How tribes can leverage the proposed Tribal General Welfare Exclusion Act regulations to shape the future

    The U.S. Department of Treasury and the IRS recently announced proposed changes to the 2014 Tribal General Welfare Exclusion Act — creating a crucial opportunity for Native American tribes across the country. These regulations promise to redefine how tribes can support their members through tax-free general welfare program payments. The Treasury will hold tribal consultations on the proposed rule on November 18, 19 and 20 of this year, 2024, and you can register using this link . They are also accepting written comments received by December 17, 2024, which can be submitted at tribal.consult@treasury.gov . Before these proposed changes take effect, tribal leaders must engage and plan to maximize the benefits for their nations. Key changes and their potential impact While the 2014 act promoted tribal general welfare overall, defining general welfare became a challenge. What, exactly, constitutes “lavish or extravagant”? The proposed amendment seeks to clarify these terms, deferring to tribes to define them within their unique cultures and circumstances. This clarity opens the door for tribes to expand existing programs and develop innovative new approaches to supporting tribal citizens. The impact could be transformative, enabling tribes to address long-standing issues of poverty and limited economic opportunities in culturally appropriate and tailored ways. At the heart of these proposed regulations is a commitment to increased tribal autonomy. This flexibility is a game-changer, allowing tribes to adapt their programs to meet evolving needs without fear of running afoul of rigid federal definitions. As an added benefit, it also minimizes potential IRS scrutiny surrounding the terms. Expanded opportunities for tribes While the immediate benefits of these proposed regulations are significant, their true potential lies in the long-term transformation they could bring to tribal communities. It’s hard to overstate the potential for expanding economic support. With these proposed changes, tribes will have more leeway to design comprehensive welfare programs that address the unique challenges faced by their members. From housing assistance to educational support, the possibilities are vast. Equally important is the opportunity to preserve and promote cultural practices. The proposed regulations recognize the integral role of culture in tribal well-being, potentially allowing for funding of language restoration programs, traditional arts and cultural activities as part of general welfare initiatives. This is an excellent step towards providing tribal communities with more holistic support. By leveraging these new rules, tribes can also strengthen their sovereignty. The ability to design and implement expanded, self-directed welfare programs gives tribal governments more control, allowing them to address their communities’ needs in ways that align with their unique cultural values and economic realities. Maximizing benefits and preparing for the future Strategic planning is essential for tribal leaders to harness the full potential of these new regulations. A critical first step is to take advantage of the virtual consultation, written comment and public hearing opportunities. Participating in these forums is a chance to provide input and feedback on the proposed regulations — shaping the future of tribal economic opportunity. A critical next step is to review revenue allocation plans. These plans, often centered around gaming revenues, have long been a cornerstone of tribal economic strategies. Now, with the expanded flexibility offered by the proposed regulations, tribes have an unprecedented opportunity to strike a balance between per capita payments and more comprehensive general welfare programs. This recalibration could lead to a more holistic approach to community support, addressing long-standing needs while still providing direct benefits to tribal members.

  • TR TAX 5 ways for tribal governments to prepare for 2024

    ARTICLE

    5 ways for tribal governments to prepare for 2024

    Tribal government funding is largely reliant on the political environment — which means uncertainty abounds. The federal government is funded through January 2024, but then things could get shaky again. And the presidential election cycle will keep everyone on their toes. Tribes need to stay tuned in to state and national trends and predict how those trends will affect members and citizens at the local level. Money related to the COVID-19 pandemic is winding down, so tribes need to make sure they can withstand delays if government programs are shut down or grant allocations change. They need budgeting and financial management tools to weather changing economic conditions, such as inflation. And they need to conservatively plan for the future to maximize the services and resources they offer citizens. Tax credits are available to help tribes fund initiatives, like expanding broadband access and to help retain more of the revenue they bring in (e.g., from geothermal and green power stations). 2024 priorities for tribal governments Tribes need to work closely with their community members to determine the most pressing needs to pay for today — and how to invest for future generations. In addition, tribes can focus on five areas that will help them navigate the upcoming year: 1. The political environment The most recent federal budgets included increases for some tribal funding and introduced new programs for tribal communities. But everything is tentative until a new spending bill is approved. Tribal leaders need to pay attention to the presidential election and what each candidate proposes for future funding. The outcome of the election could affect short- and long-term budgeting plans, so tribal leaders should create contingency plans to stay a step ahead. Dedicated time and energy to building strong relationships with groups representing tribal needs in Washington is a good idea. The political atmosphere has an enormous impact on federal funding and grants tribes rely on. Leaders need to understand the current sentiment, proposed changes and their probable impacts. 2. Inflation Inflation is projected to fall in 2024, but that doesn’t mean economic conditions will resolve entirely. Some pockets of the country will be slower to recover than others because of geography, industry ties and other factors. Tribal leaders need to monitor the local conditions since they have the biggest impact on labor and service availability. Plan conservatively, as though inflation were to remain high, but hold onto hope for a better 2024. Tribes that budget and plan conservatively will have more flexibility and be able to fund more programming toward the end of the year. 3. Talent More baby boomers are retiring every year, and there are fewer employees entering the workforce. That means the war for talent continues — and will get tougher every year. Tribal leaders need to create succession plans for key roles to help ensure continuity and stability. Succession plans should consider the future needs of the tribe, in addition to positions that exist today. They may need to develop talent and succession plans in new areas to address emerging needs. Tribal governments need to distinguish themselves as an “employer of choice.” They can create competitive working hours, flexibility, benefits packages and advancement opportunities to attract candidates and fill vacancies. Outsourcing is another avenue to fill critical talent gaps. Tribes may need to look outside the community to fill roles in IT, accounting, payroll and human resources, among others. Outsourcing can fill temporary gaps or give tribal governments access to specialized skills they don’t currently have. 4. Technology About a third of U.S. employees are only willing to work remotely . That creates a disadvantage for tribal governments that haven’t pursued high-speed internet or cloud-based software, especially if they operate in remote areas where it’s challenging to recruit employees. Many tribal governments could expand their talent pool by enabling remote work. Upfront, that requires investment in high-speed internet and cloud-based software — but there may be grant funding or tax credits available to soften the expense. Because the talent shortage is a long-term problem, some industries are responding with longer-term investments, such as artificial intelligence (AI). As AI technology matures over the next few years, tribal governments should evaluate whether some functions or tasks could be eliminated or automated. 5. Proposed changes to Uniform Guidance There are several proposed changes to the Uniform Guidance that affect administrative requirements, cost principles and audit requirements for federal awards. The biggest impact to tribal governments is allowing tribes to follow their own procurement policies and procedures. The proposal removes the prohibition on geographical preferences and removes the requirement that tribal governments must publicly open sealed bids. Other proposed changes include increasing the de minimis indirect cost rate from 10% to 15%, increasing the subaward exclusion from $25,000 to $50,000 and raising the audit threshold from $750,000 to $1,000,000 in total expenditures. Once the guidance is final, take note so you stay compliant with new rules when they become applicable.

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