Senior living at a crossroads: Navigating financial and demographic shifts

The “boom” part of the baby boomer generation is in full swing, and the senior living industry now stands at a crossroads. Unprecedented demographic tailwinds and financial shifts present both unique challenges and extraordinary opportunities. With the 75+ population in the U.S. growing from 27.5 million in 2024 to 28.6 million in 2025 — a 4% year-over-year increase — the industry faces growing demand amid changing consumer expectations and operational pressures.

Demographic drivers creating unprecedented demand

The landscape of senior living has fundamentally transformed in recent years, driven by powerful demographic shifts. The 80+ population growth rate, currently at 4%-6%, consistently exceeds the senior housing inventory growth of approximately 2%-3%, creating a widening demand-supply gap that industry experts project will persist through 2030 and beyond.

NIC MAP data reveals a staggering four-quarter absorption of 8,399 units in Q4 2024, substantially exceeding the pre-pandemic maximum of 5,744 units. This accelerating absorption reflects both the demographic surge and the industry’s remarkable recovery from COVID-19 disruptions, with penetration rates now exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Financial pressures and operational challenges

Rising costs and staffing constraints

Senior living facilities continue to grapple with significant operational challenges. Inflationary pressures have driven up costs across multiple fronts — construction, food service, energy, technology and most critically, staffing. Labor costs remain the single largest expense category, with many operators reporting double-digit percentage increases in wage rates since 2021.

Staffing shortages persist as a chronic challenge. The industry has witnessed high turnover rates among unlicensed assistive personnel, with some reports indicating rates exceeding 100% annually. This volatility compromises care quality and drives up recruitment, training and overtime costs, creating significant operational pressure on margins.

Capital constraints and investment requirements

The industry faces substantial capital needs to both renovate aging properties and develop new inventory. Current projections indicate a significant investment gap to meet future demand. According to NIC MAP data, the investment gap is projected to grow from $287.1 billion in 2025 to $862.6 billion by 2040, highlighting the enormous capital requirements to serve the aging population.

To maintain a 90% occupancy rate through 2030, the industry will need to deliver approximately 62,000 units in 2025, growing to 146,000 units by 2027 — significantly exceeding the current development pace and historical delivery records. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for operators and investors positioned to expand capacity.

Strategic approaches for financial sustainability

Revenue diversification

To thrive in this challenging environment, senior living facilities must adopt innovative approaches to financial management and operational efficiency.

Revenue diversification is a critical component of success. Forward-thinking operators are expanding their service offerings beyond traditional care models to include wellness programs, rehabilitation services and home healthcare options. These additional service lines create new income streams while enhancing resident experiences and extending length of stay.

Exploring strategic partnerships

Collaboration with healthcare providers, community organizations and businesses enhance service offerings and generates additional revenue. Many operators are forming strategic alliances with:

• Healthcare systems to create care continuums.
• Universities for intergenerational programming.
• Technology companies to integrate advanced monitoring and engagement solutions.
• Medicare Advantage plans to capture new revenue streams.

These partnerships not only diversify revenue but also create competitive differentiation in increasingly crowded markets.

Consumer wealth and changing expectations

Growing financial resources

The senior demographic has experienced significant wealth accumulation, with median net worth for 75+ households growing from $180,000 in 1995 to $335,000 in 2022 (in constant 2022 dollars). Simultaneously, median net worth for 65-74 households has increased from $215,000 to $410,000 over the same period.

This wealth growth has outpaced increases in senior housing annual rents, which have risen from $32,000 to $49,000 (CPI adjusted) between 1995 and 2022. This favorable ratio of assets to costs suggests continued affordability for a growing segment of the aging population.

Evolving consumer preferences

Today’s seniors have significantly different expectations compared to previous generations. They prioritize:

• Wellness and active lifestyle programming over traditional care models.
• Technology integration for both health monitoring and social connection.
• Customization and choice in living arrangements and services.
• Community engagement and purpose-driven activities.

Meeting these evolving expectations requires substantial operational flexibility and investment in both staff training and physical plant adaptations.

Leveraging technology to meet evolving member needs

The senior living industry’s transformation isn’t limited to demographic shifts and financial pressures — technological innovation is rapidly becoming a critical differentiator for successful organizations. According to recent association research, there exists a direct correlation between technology adoption and member satisfaction, engagement and loyalty.

The technology-member loyalty connection

Research shows that members who view their organizations as early technology adopters report significantly higher levels of satisfaction and connection. They’re also more likely to actively promote the association to colleagues. Conversely, when members perceive their organization as technologically lagging, satisfaction and engagement metrics decline precipitously. This “technology perception gap” creates a compelling case for strategic technology investment.

For senior living communities, this translates to a clear imperative: Implementing modern technology solutions isn’t merely an operational consideration — it directly impacts resident satisfaction, family referrals and, ultimately, occupancy rates.

Technology adoption strategies for 2025

To align with current technology trends and member expectations, forward-thinking senior living organizations are prioritizing several key technology initiatives:

• Personalized digital experiences: Members increasingly expect tailored content and services. Organizations that excel at providing personalized digital experiences see substantially higher engagement rates.
• Artificial intelligence integration: Leading organizations are implementing AI for content recommendation, service personalization and operational efficiency. Top AI applications include generating communications, developing assessments and recommending relevant content.
• Data-driven decision-making: Organizations that effectively collect and analyze membership data gain critical insights for service improvement. However, privacy concerns remain significant — members expect transparency about data collection practices and clear value exchange for their information.
• Mobile-first technology solutions: As mobile device usage continues to dominate digital interactions, successful organizations are prioritizing mobile-optimized experiences across all touchpoints, from initial inquiries to ongoing service delivery.

Addressing technology concerns

While embracing technology, senior living organizations must remain mindful of member concerns. Privacy and data security rank as members’ top technology-related worries, with generational differences significantly impacting comfort levels.

Organizations can address these concerns by:

• Implementing robust data security measures and clearly communicating them.
• Providing transparent opt-in processes for data collection.
• Demonstrating tangible benefits from technology implementation.
• Offering technology education and support, particularly for older members.

Technology as a competitive differentiator

In today’s competitive senior living landscape, technology adoption is increasingly viewed as a strategic necessity rather than a discretionary investment. Organizations perceived as technology leaders gain significant advantages in member satisfaction, engagement, and loyalty — metrics that directly impact occupancy rates and financial performance.

By thoughtfully implementing technology solutions that address specific member needs while respecting privacy concerns, senior living facilities can enhance service delivery, improve operational efficiency and create compelling value propositions in an increasingly crowded marketplace.

Investment and growth outlook

Market confidence and absorption trends

The investment outlook for senior housing remains exceptionally strong. After demonstrating resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector has experienced what analysts describe as a “rapid rebound,” with penetration and total absorption recovering within five quarters of full vaccine rollout.

Occupancy rates continue their upward trajectory, with projections showing progression from 85.7% in 2023 to 91.2% by 2027 and potentially reaching 96.7% by 2030 if inventory growth remains at current pace.

Capital formation and investment activity

The senior housing sector has witnessed growing interest from institutional investors. Healthcare REITs now account for 11.3% of public REIT market capitalization, reflecting the sector’s maturation as an institutional asset class.

Recent changes to NCREIF NFI-ODCE inclusion criteria now explicitly recognize senior living as a property type rather than subsuming it under “other,” which should accelerate institutional capital flows into the sector. These changes allow allocators and investment managers greater flexibility to pursue alternative sectors like senior housing while maintaining portfolio diversification.

The path forward: Strategic implications

Supply-demand dynamics creating long-term opportunity

The fundamental mismatch between population growth and inventory development creates a compelling long-term investment thesis. The 80+ population is projected to grow by 470,000 in 2025, increasing to 784,000 in 2030 and maintaining substantial growth through 2075 — creating multi-decade demand tailwinds.

To meet this demand while maintaining target occupancy levels, the industry would need to deliver approximately 110,000 units annually through 2030 — substantially exceeding both the current development pace and historical delivery records. This gap between need and delivery creates significant opportunities for well-capitalized operators and investors.

Strategies for success in the evolving landscape

Operators and investors positioned for success in this environment will focus on:

• Operational excellence: Implementing staffing innovations, technology integration and rigorous expense management to maintain margins in an inflationary environment.
• Strategic growth: Pursuing both organic development and strategic acquisitions in markets with favorable demographic profiles and limited competition.
• Consumer-centric innovation: Developing flexible care models and physical environments that address evolving consumer preferences while maintaining operational efficiency.
• Financial sophistication: Creating diverse capital structures that leverage both traditional debt and emerging financing vehicles to fund growth while managing interest rate risk.
• Technology integration: Deploying advanced systems for both resident care enhancement and operational efficiency to address staffing constraints and enhance service delivery.

The future of senior living

The senior living industry is experiencing a transformative phase driven by demographic and financial shifts unparalleled in its history. The convergence of unprecedented demand growth, evolving consumer expectations and institutional investor interest creates extraordinary opportunities for operators and investors positioned to navigate the operational challenges.

With 80+ population growth significantly outpacing inventory development, absorption rates setting new records and occupancy continuing its upward trajectory, the fundamental performance indicators point to sustained growth. The sector’s recognition as offering superior risk-adjusted returns reflects growing market confidence in its economic fundamentals.

Forward-thinking organizations will leverage these tailwinds through operational excellence, strategic partnerships, revenue diversification, and consumer-centric innovation. Those that successfully navigate these dynamics will not only achieve financial sustainability but also fulfill the critical societal role of providing high-quality living environments for America’s rapidly growing senior population.

How Wipfli can help

By focusing on key strategies for sustainability, innovation and community engagement, senior living facilities can position themselves for long-term success in a rapidly changing environment. If your organization is ready to meet the challenges of the future, Wipfli can help. Our team of dedicated advisors understands the unique needs that the baby boomer generation brings and can guide you on a path to financial well-being. Contact us today to get started.